Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 1

Sept. 5, 2018, 10:09 p.m.

I haven't been posting forecasts but thought what better way to start than with finals, so here goes. First for this weeks matches:

Match Venue Predicted Winner Probability Predicted Margin
RIC vs HAW MCG RIC 71% 16
MEL vs GEE MCG MEL 63% 12
SYD vs GWS SCG SYD 50% 1
WCE vs COL Perth Stadium WCE 66% 17

Now for all of finals which is a bit more interesting:
I've plotted got final ladder position on the x axis and chance of finishing in that position on the y axis. They're plotted cumulatively so each position adds to 1. You can toggle individual teams on and off to see their individual distribution too.

This is from 10,000 simulations of finals series'. I thought this would be enough but it looks like it's not (My model rates Melbourne a 37% chance of losing this week but a 44% chance of finishing 8th, go figure. next week I'll run more sims).

Richmond is my models favourite individual team for the flag at 33%, although they face stiff competition against a group called "Not-Richmond" who are a 67% chance to win it. Don't get complacent Tigers, "Not-Richmond" are coming!

My model rates Melbourne 4th most likely to win it, more likely than Hawthorn surprisingly. My model doesn't rate the Hawks as high as Melbourne despite finishing top 4, so without the double chance the Hawks would be in a similar spot to Sydney or GWS, maybe slightly more likely to win it with their MCG home ground advantage.

My model rates West Coast pretty strong favourites (66%) this week against Collingwood but still likes Collingwood as 2nd favourite for the flag. I guess the Home Ground Advantage of the MCG improves the Hawks, Pies and Melbournes chances if they come up against a West Coast, Sydney or Giants in the Final.

Anyway that's it for this week, enjoy!