Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 2

Sept. 14, 2018, 7:21 p.m.

Just in time for week 2, here are my forecasts and a cool Sankey Diagram for the rest of finals.

First, predictions for this week:
Match Venue Predicted Winner Probability Predicted Margin
HAW vs MEL MCG MEL 67% 16
COL vs GWS MCG COL 68% 19

Now for the rest of finals. This took forever to make, especially all the hovering actions, and is still a little buggy, but I think it's really cool. Clicking on a team shows their possible paths and likelihoods:
Richmond still the team to beat and 42% for the flag. Still more likely that a team other than Richmond wins though. Last time I checked bookie odds Richmond were under $2 so maybe some value in laying the Tigers...

Anyway that's it for this week!