Only 2 weeks and 4 teams left vying to reach the ultimate goal.
Richmond is around 43% for the flag (around the same as last week, although I had a bug in my code last week so I think I should have been forecasting Richmond slightly higher than 43% last week). Melbourne and Collingwood are second favourites at 22% and 21% followed by West Coast at 14%.
Although West Coast are tipped to beat Melbourne this week, should Melbourne make it through it could set up a cracker of a grand final if Richmond also make it, since Richmond only hold a 2% edge over Melbourne in the simulated Grand Finals.
This is laid out in the Sankey diagram below:
Now, predictions for this week:
| Match |
Venue |
Predicted Winner |
Probability |
Predicted Margin |
| RIC vs COL |
MCG |
RIC |
62% |
10 |
| WCE vs MEL |
MCG |
WCE |
57% |
8 |
That's it for this week, getting excited for the last few games!