Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 3

Sept. 20, 2018, 10:32 p.m.

Only 2 weeks and 4 teams left vying to reach the ultimate goal.

Richmond is around 43% for the flag (around the same as last week, although I had a bug in my code last week so I think I should have been forecasting Richmond slightly higher than 43% last week). Melbourne and Collingwood are second favourites at 22% and 21% followed by West Coast at 14%.

Although West Coast are tipped to beat Melbourne this week, should Melbourne make it through it could set up a cracker of a grand final if Richmond also make it, since Richmond only hold a 2% edge over Melbourne in the simulated Grand Finals.

This is laid out in the Sankey diagram below:

Now, predictions for this week:

Match Venue Predicted Winner Probability Predicted Margin
RIC vs COL MCG RIC 62% 10
WCE vs MEL MCG WCE 57% 8

That's it for this week, getting excited for the last few games!