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Modelling, forecasts and predictions about AFL (and maybe other things).
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A New Way to Think About AFL Scoring
Jan. 27, 2020, 3:06 p.m.
Tags:
Match Analysis
A new model to break down how a match was won and lost
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Home Ground Advantage in AFL
Dec. 16, 2019, 10:30 p.m.
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Home Ground Advantage
Delving into what causes HGA in AFL
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Comparing Squiggle Models
May 8, 2019, 10:23 p.m.
Tags:
Comparing models against their own expectations
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BRELO + Players
March 18, 2019, 9:28 p.m.
Tags:
Win Probability
Turns out the players do matter
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A Brownian Motion Inspired ELO Model
Jan. 9, 2019, 10:15 p.m.
Tags:
Win Probability
How I combined a Brownian Motion and ELO to form BRELO
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2019 Strength of Schedule
Nov. 9, 2018, 11:45 p.m.
Tags:
Strength of Schedule
St Kilda seem to have got a good fixture finally. Collingwood and Melbourne face tough draws following strong seasons
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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 3
Sept. 20, 2018, 10:32 p.m.
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Win Probability
4 teams left and Richmond still <50% to win it all
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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 2
Sept. 14, 2018, 7:21 p.m.
Tags:
Win Probability
Featuring sankey diagram visualisation of the rest of the finals series!
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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 1
Sept. 5, 2018, 10:09 p.m.
Tags:
Win Probability
Why the flag isn't in the bag for Richmond just yet
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A Brownian Motion Model for AFL
July 30, 2018, 2:23 p.m.
Tags:
Win Probability
Applying Brownian motion to scoring in AFL
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