Modelling, forecasts and predictions about AFL (and maybe other things).

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A New Way to Think About AFL Scoring

Jan. 27, 2020, 3:06 p.m.  Tags: Match Analysis

A new model to break down how a match was won and lost

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Home Ground Advantage in AFL

Dec. 16, 2019, 10:30 p.m.  Tags: Home Ground Advantage

Delving into what causes HGA in AFL

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Comparing Squiggle Models

May 8, 2019, 10:23 p.m.  Tags:

Comparing models against their own expectations

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BRELO + Players

March 18, 2019, 9:28 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

Turns out the players do matter

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A Brownian Motion Inspired ELO Model

Jan. 9, 2019, 10:15 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

How I combined a Brownian Motion and ELO to form BRELO

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2019 Strength of Schedule

Nov. 9, 2018, 11:45 p.m.  Tags: Strength of Schedule

St Kilda seem to have got a good fixture finally. Collingwood and Melbourne face tough draws following strong seasons

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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 3

Sept. 20, 2018, 10:32 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

4 teams left and Richmond still <50% to win it all

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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 2

Sept. 14, 2018, 7:21 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

Featuring sankey diagram visualisation of the rest of the finals series!

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Finals Forecasts 2018 Week 1

Sept. 5, 2018, 10:09 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

Why the flag isn't in the bag for Richmond just yet

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A Brownian Motion Model for AFL

July 30, 2018, 2:23 p.m.  Tags: Win Probability

Applying Brownian motion to scoring in AFL

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